One of the top items considered very carefully by investors when looking at investment packages is the rate of return. It is not surprising that the first question they ask for when presented with an investment proposal is the rate of return. The rate of return is evaluated with reference to a certain period of time.
There is a question that all investors ask inevitably: how much can be considered appropriate rate of return? How much is the best or ideal rate of return by which we could measure investments by? When the bank tells you to save your money in a time deposit account because it pays 5% rate of return compounded annually, how can you tell that you are making a good investment with a good rate of return?
Three factors need to be taken into consideration if we are to answer the question properly: inflation, taxation, and the highest rate of return possible for the "safest investment" of all.
First off, what is inflation? According to Wikipedia, it is "a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time". Inflation gnaws at the value of your money. So your P1,000 now may not be worth the same 20 years from now because the prices of goods and services keep increasing. Your P1,000 3 years from now may not be able to buy as much as you can buy today for the same cost.
The second item in consideration is taxation. It needs no discussion as everybody knows taxes. Tax rates vary as it all depends on who is in power.
The third factor to be considered is the highest rate of return for the safest investment ever known which are government bonds. Government bonds are safest since they are naturally fully backed by the government. It is highly unlikely that a government will go bankrupt (unless the country is in the middle of a civil war or political turmoil) therefore it is also unlikely that the government will renege on its financial obligations.
These three items will provide us with adequate information for the formulation of the ideal rate of return.
Mary Buffett and David Clark explain in the book "Buffetology" the interplay between these three factors. According to Warren Buffett, one of the world's wealthiest and greatest stock market investor that the minimum rate of investment should not fall below 15%. In Chapter 25 of the book, the author estimated that just to cushion inflation and taxation, a 7.2% return on investment is needed. The book concludes that "to have a real increase in your wealth, it is necessary that the return on your wealth be at least equal to the effects of taxation and inflation".
Focusing on the effect of inflation and taxation on the rate of return, the author cautioned that investing in bonds with an annual compounding rate of return of 8% would probably leave a rate of return of only 0.5% (8% less 31% income tax, less 5% inflation). Or worse, zero rate of return if the inflation rate rise to 9%. In conclusion, it does not make sense then to invest in government bonds or in any investment if the rate of return offered is below 8%.
Warren Buffet knows the importance of having a "wide margin of safety". In keeping with which, he insists on 15% rate of return. Minus inflation and taxes, he is assured with a growth of about 8% rate of return compounded annually.
What makes government bonds an interesting consideration? Not only are they the safest investments but also they give the highest possible rate of return. Thus it has become the standard by which all other investments are measured. So if an investment can give only an 8% rate of return, it is better to invest in government bonds that guarantee 8% return on investment, rather than risking it in other investments. Should you find however, that a certain investment has a rate of return of over and above 15%, then put your money in that investment rather than in government bonds.
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